Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?

This paper investigates how well survey data depicting consumer sentiment forecasts household’s consumption behavior for the UK. We consider whether consumer sentiment is able to predict the growth of household’s consumption, in addition to the growth of labor income. The empirical analysis finds that Consumer Confidence Indices (CCI) does predict the household’s consumption of durable goods. We also draw comparisons with recent analysis for the US. In addition, we analyze whether both the UK and US CCI are accurate and useful predictors of household’s consumption growth using directional analysis. We find that the UK confidence indicators predict better the US

Impact of the UK general elections on total government expenditure cycles: theory and evidence

This paper presents a testable theoretical framework that extends the standard demand-side approach to modeling government expenditure on goods and services. The focus is on the adjustment of expenditure to disequilibria: we investigate whether the adjustment of UK exhaustive government expenditure between 1966 and 2002 to its long-run equilibrium path is symmetric. The evidence points to asymmetric adjustment to the demands of a representative voter over the election cycle but not between Labour and Conservative governments. Convergence to equilibrium is found to be faster during the later stages of each election cycle

Management and drivers of change of pollinating insects and pollination services. National Pollinator Strategy: for bees and other pollinators in England, Evidence statements and Summary of Evidence

These Evidence Statements provide up-to-date information on what is known (and not known) about the status, values, drivers of change, and responses to management of UK insect pollinators (as was September 2018). This document has been produced to inform the development of England pollinator policy, and provide insight into the evidence that underpins policy decision-making. This document sits alongside a more detailed Summary of Evidence (Annex I) document written by pollinator experts. For information on the development of the statements, and confidence ratings assigned to them, please see section ?Generation of the statements? below. Citations for these statements are contained in the Summary of Evidence document

Trading places : worklessness dynamics in Greater Manchester

As part of the Local Economic Assessment process, a number of additional research projects were proposed by Greater Manchester (GM) local authorities into areas where data gaps exist or a greater understanding and analysis of a particular issue is required. One such area was the dynamics of the workless population in deprived neighbourhoods. There are neighbourhoods across GM where worklessness rates are persistently high. It has been suggested that in some areas this is partly the result of individuals moving out of deprived neighbourhoods to ‘better’ areas having found employment and then being replaced by workless individuals moving into the neighbourhood. Thus, people experience positive individual level employment outcomes whilst living in a neighbourhood, but the area may change little over time and may appear unresponsive to initiatives aimed at reducing worklessness. The analysis in this report breaks new ground in using individual level data on employment transitions and geographical movements taken from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) records to shed light on neighbourhood level population dynamics